A/HRC/25/50/Add.1 35. The above-mentioned measures may well violate the standards set out in the treaties to which Greece is a party; for example, the European Committee of Social Rights of the Council of Europe has held that the reduced minimum wage for employee under 25 years violates the right to a fair remuneration in article 4 (1) of the European Social Charter, as it provides a minimum wage below the poverty level.30 IV. Debt sustainability 36. According to IMF, Greece’s public debt was expected to peak at around 176 per cent of GDP in 201331 before declining to 124 per cent in 2020 and “substantially below 110 per cent of GDP in 2022”.32 In June 2013, gross external debt was estimated at 233 per cent of GDP but was expected to peak at around 240 per cent of GDP during the same year, then decline to around 145 per cent in 2020.33 Net external debt was projected to fall from approximately 130 per cent of GDP in 2012 to around 75 per cent in 2020.34 37. These projections are based on the assumption that the Government will be able to maintain a primary surplus of 4 per cent in the long run, generate about €22 billion from privatization through 2020, and continue to rely on official loans at relatively low interest rates.35 It is also based on the assumption that the economy will start to grow from 2014 and that Greece will secure additional contingent debt relief of about 4 per cent of GDP from its European partners, to be determined in 2014/15. These projections appear, however, to be overly optimistic. Indeed, it is evident that IMF has consistently underestimated the loss of GDP for Greece, lowering its projections by 6.9 per cent since its first review of the standby arrangement in September 2010. In June 2013, IMF admitted that it had underestimated the impact of austerity measures on the country’s economy and debt sustainability.36 Furthermore, failures with the privatization programme – the trend to date – would also raise the debt-to-GDP ratio.37 38. Significantly, Greece’s debt, as IMF has acknowledged, is likely to remain high “well into the next decade”.38 It is also notable that its external debt burden, particularly on 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 See Complaint No. 66/2011, Decision on the Merits, 23 May 2013, available from www.coe.int/t/dGHl/monitoring/Socialcharter/Complaints/CC66Merits_en.pdf. Other estimates put public external debt at 180 per cent of GDP; see for example Jubilee Debt Campaign, Life and debt (see footnote 15) p. 11; and Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Report: Greece, London, July 2013, available from www.eiu.com/FileHandler.ashx?issue_id=240687008&mode=pdf. IMF, Greece: Fourth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Waivers of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criterion – Staff Report; Staff Statement; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece, IMF Country Report No. 13/241, July 2013 (available from www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40838.0), p. 64. See also IMF Country Report No. 13/154, p. 49. Greece’s public debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 143 per cent in 2010 to 165 per cent in 2011. This indicates that, despite declining budget deficits, GDP growth was insufficient to support a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio during that period. IMF Country Report No. 13/241 (see footnoteabove), p. 67. Ibid. Ibid, p. 63. See IMF Country Report No. 13/156 (see footnote15). Although the adjustment programme assumed large revenues from privatization (about 15 per cent of GDP between 2010-2011 and 22 per cent of GDP by 2017), there has been little forthcoming from privatization since 2010. IMF Country Report No. 13/153 (available from www.imf.org/external/country/GRC/index.htm?type=42), p. 23. 11